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Initially, Trump seemed to embrace a firm position concerning Ukraine. After issuing threats of "significant consequences" last August in case Russia's president persisted obstructing truce negotiations, Trump eventually imposed major penalties on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially hindered the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in the region.

Yet, with his newly presented 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by both nations' diplomats without Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has apparently returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's initiative would essentially favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in danger. Although ringing statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", large portions of the proposal actually undermine that essential independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, the former president persists to consider the war as a simple territorial dispute, as if giving Russia a part of Ukrainian soil will appease the ruler. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not simply about occupying a charred swath of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent goal to destroy it so it no longer functions as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the responsible governance that his growing dictatorship prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

While keeping in position the presently divided oblasts of these areas, Trump's initiative would compel the nation to surrender the whole Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this surrender would make Ukrainian military defenses severely undermined.

This region is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified protective structures that represent a essential obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a clear route to Kyiv if he subsequently choose to resume the war.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate future conflict simpler for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to reduce the scale of its military from their present 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, the proposal places no such constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to portray the nation's democratically elected administration as Nazis, Trump's proposal states: "All Nazi doctrine and activities must be condemned and prohibited." Apparently to underscore this point, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump places no requirement that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in his own country.

Defense Commitments

To be sure, the initiative includes Russia commit not to "enter bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its stance of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". However given that Putin has broken similar accords in the past – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's borders in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a truce and a handback of captured land in eastern Ukraine to the government – how should anyone have confidence in Russia this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on western defense commitments. While the proposal promises a "decisive coordinated defense action" in case the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the specifics range from vague to troubling. The initiative would not just deny Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from stationing military personnel on the nation's land, thus blocking the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from restoring his reduced military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Response

A separate side agreement according to sources would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any future "serious, planned, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an act of war threatening the peace and security of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. Yet different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's most reliable deterrent against additional Russian aggression – the success of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, including Trump, to react through arms to Russia's attacks, something they have {not